Trade Watch Quarterly Report

08.10.2025

Trade Watch Quarterly Report

Context

NITI Aayog has published the fourth edition of its flagship analytical publication, “Trade Watch Quarterly”, for Q4 of FY 2024–25. The report provides a comprehensive overview of India’s trade performance in both merchandise and services sectors.

What is the Trade Watch Quarterly Report?

Definition:
 A periodic analytical document that evaluates India’s quarterly trade dynamics, integrating data-based assessments of exports, imports, and sectoral competitiveness.

Published by:  NITI Aayog

Objectives of the Report

1. Policy Guidance:
    To offer evidence-based insights that assist in trade and industrial policy formulation.
    
2. Export Competitiveness:
    To identify emerging sectors and regions driving India’s trade growth.
    
3. Global Value Chains (GVCs):
    To assess India’s participation in GVCs and suggest strategies to enhance value addition.
    
4. Manufacturing Strength:
    To support initiatives under Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat by highlighting trade-linked opportunities and bottlenecks.
    

Key Features

• Comprehensive Trade Coverage:
   Tracks both merchandise and services trade, disaggregated by region and product.
   
• Data-Driven Insights:
   Provides region-wise, product-wise, and sectoral analyses for strategic decision-making.
   
• Policy Relevance:
   Designed to inform NITI Aayog’s ongoing monitoring of trade reforms and export promotion efforts.
   

Recent Trade Trends (FY 2024–25)

Services Sector Performance

• Record Services Exports:
   $387.5 billion – led by IT services, aviation, and financial services.
   
• Emerging Contributors:
   Tourism, healthcare, and professional consulting services saw renewed demand.
   

Regional Trade Patterns

• North America:
   Emerged as India’s top export market (25% share, +25% YoY).
   
• EU, GCC, and ASEAN:
   Showed moderate growth, partly due to global demand slowdown.
   
• Africa and Latin America:
   Recorded emerging diversification in pharmaceuticals and machinery exports.
   

Import Shifts

• UAE:
   Became India’s 2nd-largest supplier, driven by gold imports under the India–UAE CEPA.
   
• China:
   Continued dominance in electronics and machinery, with rising intermediate goods imports.
   
• Russia:
   Fell behind UAE due to moderated energy inflows and payment mechanism constraints.
   

Significance of the Report

• Policy Benchmarking:
   Provides reference data for ministries, think tanks, and state governments.
   
• Trade Negotiation Support:
   Helps assess performance under new trade agreements (e.g., CEPA, EFTA).
   
• Early Warning System:
   Detects stress in export sectors for timely corrective action.
   

Way Forward

1. Diversification of Export Basket:
    Focus on electronics, green technologies, and processed food.
    
2. Strengthening GVC Integration:
    Enhance logistics, customs efficiency, and trade finance.
    
3. Digital Trade Facilitation:
    Expand e-platforms for small exporters to access global markets.
    
4. Regional Strategy:
    Deepen engagement with Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America to reduce dependence on a few markets.
    

Conclusion

The Trade Watch Quarterly Report serves as a strategic compass for India’s trade policy. By combining data analytics with policy foresight, it reflects India’s evolving trade resilience and the shift towards services-led, high-value exports. Going forward, sustained reforms and diversification will be key to achieving India’s vision of a $2 trillion trade economy by 2030.